A new report by the World Trade Organization (WTO) says artificial intelligence could raise the value of global trade in goods and services almost 40% by 2040. The annual World Trade Report, published Wednesday (Download the full WTO Report, PDF), finds that AI can make trade much bigger. But it’s not all good news—the WTO calls for big steps to narrow digital and economic gaps, saying, “AI could also worsen old divides, leaving workers and countries behind.”
AI Could Boost Global Trade by 40% by 2040
The WTO’s study says lower costs and better productivity from AI may boost cross-border sales by 34–37% under different scenarios, with global GDP rising 12–13%. Deputy Director Johanna Hill states, “AI shines bright for trade in a tough world. It’s changing how the economy works and how goods flow.” The WTO’s chief, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, repeats that AI brings opportunities but also dangers if not handled right.
Productivity Gains Drive Growth, but Divides Remain
Translation tools and smart logistics can help small sellers join international markets. Export growth in poorer nations might jump 11% if they improve internet and tech. Still, trade access to AI resources isn’t equal. Supply chains and prices vary. Some nations tax AI hardware more, making tech costly in low-income regions.
WTO Urges Stronger Digital Policies and Training
The WTO urges governments to invest in digital skills, education, and stable rules. Otherwise, AI may deepen the digital divide and hit jobs. Jobs may get easier or disappear as robots and software replace simple tasks. More tariffs and trade barriers on AI-related goods have popped up, with nearly 500 import limits in 2024 (up from 130 in 2012), hurting access in poorer and middle nations.
Risks for Small Producers and Developing Nations
AI can make transport, customs, and business talks faster and cheaper. Small companies could reach overseas markets thanks to auto-translators and e-commerce. But only businesses with good connectivity and tech skills benefit now, the report notes. Many workers may lose out without reskilling and updated social safety nets.
Bridging the Digital Gap for Fair Opportunity
The WTO’s top priority: Bridge technology gaps between rich and poor. Up to $2.3 trillion in AI-supporting goods were traded in 2023—semiconductors, sensors, and fiber cables. Yet, access is not fair. Binding rules, lower tariffs, and global talks are needed so AI’s benefits spread to all regions.
How AI Changes Jobs and Labor Markets
Policy leaders must manage changes AI brings. The WTO says more retraining, better education, and stronger safety nets are smart investments to avoid shocks as routine jobs shrink and new skills are needed.
Trade in AI-Enabling Goods Surges
More trade deals about tech and AI appear in the WTO. They hope for new global agreements making AI tools and raw parts cheap and easy to get everywhere. This can stop new divides and help both small and large economies share the gains.
